Herd Immunity

Herd Immunity is very simply, when 1 person passes a virus on to less than 1 person, when R is less than 1.

Some months back I made a statement that South Africa had reached Herd Immunity, back on July 24, 2020.

I stand by my analysis, with regard to the Coronavirus first wave, and Medical Science has as yet, not convinced me, that the same Covid virus that arrived in March 2020, is part of the Second Strain, which appears to transmit quicker, and at this stage, the death rate has no confirmed increase or decrease.    

My philosophy is that the present virus, moves like a flu strain, two to three strains per annum, vaccines needing to change every two years, no one vaccine working for all strains.

South Africa Flu movement
South Africa Flu movement

      

Notice how the cases come and go, without lockdown and sanitizing. Notice how they overlap:

COVID:

Europe announces that they have a second wave during November, then in December, they find a few cases of a new strain, then a South African strain.

The Second Wave, is in fact they start of the New Strain, and as we approach January, the New Strain is now being credited for arriving start January.

Strange how medical science has not yet identified is origins.

Medical Science is still driving the vaccine for Strain One, have they tested it for Strain Two?

Let us look at the South African scenario:

Covid Cases in South Africa
Covid Cases in South Africa

Note; during the first wave, the infections are lower, and my July 24 identification as having reached herd immunity is clearly visible, the R factor remains below 1, till mid November, when Strain Two arrives:

We are doing more testing know, so the graph shows higher infection rate during Strain Two.

South Africa Covid Death Graph
South Africa Covid Death Graph

Let us look at the United Kingdom, during the First Wave very few cases indicate little testing, yet look at the deaths that take place off the ‘few cases’.

During the Second Strain, a lot of testing, many cases, but deaths not so severe.   

Covid Cases in the UK
Covid Cases in the UK
Covid Deaths in UK
Covid Deaths in UK

Let us look at Sweden who does not lock down, during the First Strain, they only test those who report symptoms, and look at the death rate, then more cases occur during the Strain Two, and deaths are not at same rate;

 

Sweden Covid Cases
Sweden Covid Cases
Sweden Covid Deaths
Sweden Covid Deaths

If Sweden Deaths during the Strain Two period, it will confirm my philosophy that the virus, like the flu, will arrive and leave us is different phases.

Disciple Cedric may be an idiot, but the world appears to be following the same protocol, but results are skewed, South Africa needs to include Pakistan and Madagascar in our model;

The Bottom Line Madagascar
The Bottom Line Madagascar

 

Disciple Cedric de la Harpe

Campus Rudolf Virchow Africa,

WhatsApp or SMS text 082 565 2520

Cedric@cedricdelaharpe.co.za.

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