Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:

Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:

INTRODUCTION:

This planned post, has been influenced by two media comments this week, the First by our Prof Karrim, repeated by UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock, Sunday 24h Jan, and according to them, there are indications that the New South African virus strain, will not respond to the vaccine that the China Virus has been developed for.

Matt Hancock makes it very clear, that they fear the SA Virus infected the UK for this very reason, and this morning, the  USA issues a similar anti-SA visit protocol.

During Matt Hancock’s briefing, Hancock indicates that the South African virus, although spreading quicker, they believe the morality rate, would be between 20% and 50% higher than the China Virus.

This gives me confirmation that although our SA Virus, was killing at 3,53 times higher last week, June 17, this week, June 24, it has reduced to 2,9% times higher, this brings clarity to what I suspected las week, but we will keep it for later.

Before I give an SA Virus explantation, I introduce the Vice of Reason that influences my logic and philosophy:                         

Within a week of Lockdown, I attempt to publish my Voice of Reason, for reasons that I do no cover in this blog, for five years I have predicted the Democracy Changes, and that the economic forces were ready to introduce the New Industrial Revolution, at the expense of the Human Labour, and that the China Virus will allow this to take place.

No withstanding my crazy mindset, the world lockdown process, was exposing a large percentage of our world population at risk, and those at risk, are all part of the poverty groups, who are providing the front-line for the medical services and other essential services. 

My personal philosophy on Coronavirus management; is attached on a separate post, granted I am critical of System Dictate, and promote Human Dictate, so my philosophy can never be accepted, and the publisher blocked publication on April 02, 2020.         

Briefly, the Clinics, Hospitals, Public transport, are the ‘hot-spots’, or the ‘super-spreader’ of any virus, and thus my philosophy was to manage these essential areas;         

Alexandra, and parts of Soweto, and other Cantons, could not possible be ‘locked-down’ on their individual properties, the majority of their properties, no more that 5mX5m, accommodating, 4 to 8 people. Alexandra as a community, could be locked-down, and free movement allowed inside the defined border of the larger Canton. 

The Alexandra and Soweto Canton communities, provide the bulk of the essential services labour, to the old Johannesburg Canton, and this would need to be managed, if we wish to reduce the transfer of any virus, in both directions.

Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:
Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:

 China/South African Virus, Jan 24,  update, and the Voice of Reason explanation:

As I watched the China Virus replace the flu season in the Northern Hemisphere,  I was not surprised to confirm through Sweden’s non-lockdown philosophy, that this virus, is similar to an evil flu, that would move through the world, irrespective of any lockdown, and when it looses its power, it would leave us alone.        

China Virus:

The China Virus arrived in South Africa, end February, and by March 22, we had identified 274 International travellers, and 26 locals had tested positive, a total of 300.

Two  days later, South Africa, abandons the track and trace management of the identified virus, and enters lockdown, had we delayed lockdown, in theory, we should have controlled the virus, I am not critical, of this decision, as I believe, like flu, we will never defeat this type of virus.

Like the flu, I am of the personal opinion, that a large portion of the population, would not know whether the virus had passed through them or not, my wife and I, have no had a flu injection, and we can’t remember having had flu during he pas twenty years.

My philosophy on herd-immunity, is that we a herd do no all need to be infected with a virus, in order for the virus transmission to dissipate, the herd population’s age demography, health, and exposure to other viruses, would reduce the population numbers that would be susceptible, and when transfer starts to reduce, the herd is sufficiently immune, and the virus ‘dies’.

I published a graph in August 2020, making the submission that we had reached herd immunity in June 2020, and that the China Virus was dissipating. This was he first occasion that I tracked the % of tested cases that were positive, and  when the cases   

Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:
Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:

My Voice of Reason confirms  this logic with the following:

A: On May 28, 2020, we enter level 3 lockdown,  the exponential infection curve, continues, reaches a peak n July 19, and dissipates without needing any further lockdown.

B: On August 17, 2020, we enter  level 2 lockdown,  when we sill has 22500 and then 20000 weekly infections, yet the infections continue to decrease for another six weeks, notwithstanding the free movement of the Citizens, had the China Virus, still been any threat to our citizens, the red arrow, would have returned to the exponential curve shown on the left, from May 24 to July 19.   

C: My Voice of Reason may have been questioned, if we did no identify the new wave, as being a new South African Virus, thus, we can accept that for the China Virus, we achieved herd immunity in July.    

Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:
Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:

 D: Although I never concerned myself with how many positive cases we recorded, the Percentage Positive, in relation to the Number of Tests, confirm that the infections dissipated on July 19, 2020.     

Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:
Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:

 E: In the next graph, the infections that start to dissipate on July 19, 2020, has  the death trend following two weeks later:    

Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:
Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:

South African Virus, stage two:

This is the interesting part of my post, I need to answer to my herd immunity critics, how can we have reached China Virus her immunity, when the second wave has arrived?

The second wave, like the two or three waves of annual flu, may not infect you, or two may infect you, and most flu viruses require different drugs/injections.    

Many of our Second Virus Wave, has infected members of our population, who already have had the China Virus, including both my Grand-children.

My challenge is to motivate my philosophy that the China Virus, moved through our population, created havoc and killed, and then left our community, notwithstanding the lack of lockdown and social distancing.

I am going to allow my voice of reason, to provide my preliminary reasoning, that we are only a couple of weeks away from the Second Virus Wave herd-immunity, and the removal of lockdown, and opening the bottle-stores, will not bring another wave of infections, from this strain, however, we must not exclude a first wave of the new season by March.

Having made the finding that the South African virus, was killing at a rate, 3,5 times higher than the China virus, I needed to convince myself, if not you, that  we are heading for a virus dissipation taking place, or in my language, herd immunity. in order to satisfy the medical scientists, that the South African virus, only kills at between 20% and 50%  more than the China Virus.

As seen from the China Virus presentation, I have isolated the two waves, the China Wave, infections ending on October 25, 2020, and the deaths on November 01, 2020, this ending, for convenience, opens the South African wave,  that should be with us, till end of March 2021:

In my Jan 18 post, I expressed reservations that had, with regard to publishing, as i was concerned by the steep escalation of positive cases on Jan 10, and then the drop, on Jan 17, the black arrow (top right) indicates the trend line, that existed last week.     

Yesterday’s number of cases, show that the positive infections, are on  steep decline.

Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:
Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:

And to confirm, the percentage positive, of the tests, shows, that curve sats to level off on the 17th Jan, and is on the decline, on Jan 24.  

Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:
Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:

The weekly deaths, replicate the behaviour of all facets of the testing, infections, the infection rate, and the resulting death rate. 

Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:
Barefoot Scientist presents his VOICE OF REASON:

   SUMMARY:    

It would appear that the South African virus, has levelled, R factor would be below 1, and the virus will loose power over the next four weeks, and by March 2021, either a flu virus, or another C Virus will be will the space normally occupied by a seasonal flu epidemic.

If I was the President, I would cancel the vaccine orders, asking the manufacturers to do full test protocol on the South African strain, before we commit.

My forecast that the virus is killing 3,5 times more than the China virus, has been reduced to 2,9 times, with the positive reduction of cases and deaths, and if I follow the trend, it will end a 1,29 times, or 29% more, complying with Matt Hancock’s 20% to 50%. 

My calculations, assuming that the South African virus, follows the China cycle, we can expect a further 375 000 positive cases from today till March 28, 2021.

The deaths at the relevant rate, with the two virus dates split as above, are as follows:

China Virus, March 2020 to November 01, 2020, total: 21 463 

South African Virus, from Nov 01, to Jan 24, 2021, total: 19 411

South African Virus, Prediction till March 28, 2021, total: 14 987

TOTAL: 55 861

Last week my prediction, provided we did not have admin/management failure, was 59 105 total deaths, 3 141 less, 5,31% less.

Last week I posted with a level of unease, today, I have considered more options, more detail, I have less fear for what the virus will do to me and my family, and the citizens of the Country.

My anger however, when I analyse the impact of Lockdown, (the arrows on graphs), I see no value in locking down the economy, my anger at what the system is doing to our human rights, takes me back into the Human Dictate fight. 

Cedric de la Harpe

Jan 25, 2021;

Campus Rudlof Virchow Africa, meets in Soweto, at an undisclosed venue, on Thursday, should you wish to be invited, please email your credentials and contacts to Cedric@cedricdelaharpe.co.za

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