Death Ratios Archives - Taste of Africa

Herd Immunity is very simply, when 1 person passes a virus on to less than 1 person, when R is less than 1.

Some months back I made a statement that South Africa had reached Herd Immunity, back on July 24, 2020.

I stand by my analysis, with regard to the Coronavirus first wave, and Medical Science has as yet, not convinced me, that the same Covid virus that arrived in March 2020, is part of the Second Strain, which appears to transmit quicker, and at this stage, the death rate has no confirmed increase or decrease.

My philosophy is that the present virus, moves like a flu strain, two to three strains per annum, vaccines needing to change every two years, no one vaccine working for all strains.

Notice how the cases come and go, without lockdown and sanitizing. Notice how they overlap:

COVID:

Europe announces that they have a second wave during November, then in December, they find a few cases of a new strain, then a South African strain.

The Second Wave, is in fact they start of the New Strain, and as we approach January, the New Strain is now being credited for arriving start January.

Strange how medical science has not yet identified is origins.

Medical Science is still driving the vaccine for Strain One, have they tested it for Strain Two?

Let us look at the South African scenario:

Note; during the first wave, the infections are lower, and my July 24 identification as having reached herd immunity is clearly visible, the R factor remains below 1, till mid November, when Strain Two arrives:

We are doing more testing know, so the graph shows higher infection rate during Strain Two.

Let us look at the United Kingdom, during the First Wave very few cases indicate little testing, yet look at the deaths that take place off the ‘few cases’.

During the Second Strain, a lot of testing, many cases, but deaths not so severe.

Let us look at Sweden who does not lock down, during the First Strain, they only test those who report symptoms, and look at the death rate, then more cases occur during the Strain Two, and deaths are not at same rate;

If Sweden Deaths during the Strain Two period, it will confirm my philosophy that the virus, like the flu, will arrive and leave us is different phases.

Disciple Cedric may be an idiot, but the world appears to be following the same protocol, but results are skewed, South Africa needs to include Pakistan and Madagascar in our model;

Disciple Cedric de la Harpe

Campus Rudolf Virchow Africa,

WhatsApp or SMS text 082 565 2520

Cedric@cedricdelaharpe.co.za.

Visit Soweto and Alexandra with Taste of Africa

Voice of Reason:

On April 02, 2020, Amazon-KDP, blocked the manuscript with the title, Voice of Reason, this, in my opinion, is due to the cover, and in particular, the question asked on the Cover;

I obviously would have handled it differently, and thus the manuscript, and in particular my question.

My intention when writing the manuscript, very simply, was to get every South African, to start thinking about how they would handle every aspect that effects, or, affects their lives.

On April 05, 2020, I entered social media with post, showing that the Coronavirus projected exponential curve, had flattened, but indicated that I expected spikes from April 05 to 09, and that I would remain exiled from Social Media, till this period is over.

Importantly, as I provide my input on moving forward, this above graph, i celebrate, not because the Curve was flattening, but I Scientists and Consultants, had set their understanding of what they were trying to achieve, the lockdown would flatten the exponential curve, projected to achieve 5000 positive cases by April 01.

The Curve had ‘flattened’ and the system should have maintained the status quo, the system had tested 44 292 by April 01, and testing is introduced with a vengeance on April 01, in the next fifteen days, another 50 000 tests are conducted, and the projected 5 000 positives are still days away.

This is my last comment on testing and the number of cases, from now I only discuss the deaths and death ratios, if it is lives we are saving, let us talk life and death.

Our “First Step to Recovery” is to scrutinise a few ‘selected countries’ and their death ratios on April 19, 2020, (fig below) your comments on the death ratios is invited, should you wish me to add a specific country of interest to the table. Please advise me on email.

I make no comment on my next move, death and death ratios, life and death statistics, will allow us to move forward.

Cedric de la Harpe

cedric@cedricdelaharpe.co.za

Category: Death Ratios

Herd Immunity

FIRST STEP TO RECOVERY