Coronavirus the “SPREAD ACTION 1”
When the President unexpectedly announces the “lockdown” the management of the process would appear to have given no consideration to the large percentage of our population that are still migrant labourers.
When Easter Shut Down arrives, the Townships empty, as both migrant workers, and family descendants head for their village homes.
In this example I use the Zulu nation, where the largest percentage of their population, live in extremely rural areas, many of the elders, only speaking the Zulu Language, and would ned to rely on local radio station for communication.
A large percentage of the Hostel communities, only speak Zulu.
The ‘Lockdown, comes very suddenly and unexpected, on March 24, 2020, the announcement comes unexpectedly that a ‘Lockdown’ will commences on the March 26, 2020, everything will be closed for 3 weeks, this announcement is tantamount to an instruction for the migrant workers to go back to the family.
The migrant is feeling healthy, there is no reason for him not to go to the family, to see them through the ‘lockdown’.
The family are no wiser, and they receive the breadwinner, as they do every year.
Maybe 200 000 Zulus move from Gauteng to KwaZulu-Natal?
For those of us who know KwaZulu-Natal. millions of people live in areas that are almost inaccessible.
The departure starts early on the morning of March 25, and probable infection date, for a new groups of cases is from March 25, given my very unscientific assessment of 9 to 11 days, the cases should show from Friday 03, 2020.
I present the graph, with no assessment, but welcome questions.
My conclusion that this incubator of the virus, was as the result of the movement back home, due directly to the Lockdown, is based on the following parameters.
GAUTENG:
On March 22, Gauteng has 124 cases, all linked to international travel, and 12 locally infected cases.
For comparative proposes, I compare the Gauteng Local infections on March 17, 2020, 1018 cases, I divide the local infections with the base International Travel of 120, and the result is the growth of 7,48 times each base case.
KWAZULU-NATAL:
On March 22, KwaZulu-Natal has 36 cases, all linked to international travel, and 5 locally infected cases.
For comparative proposes, I compare the 2, KwaZulu-Natal Local infections on March 17, 2020, 591 cases, I divide the local infections with the base International Travel of 31, and the result is the growth of 18,66 times each base case.
Danger Signals:
When the Government had control of the cases on March 22, no such movement should have been allowed.
The death statistics in KwaZulu-Natal, is the highest, in the Country, and effectively, all removal of restrictions from today, must consider how we isolate the virus in KwaZul-Natal, and ensure that any returning citizen, is considered to be returning from a high-risk area.
East London:
We need to give consideration to the origins of the virus in the East London area, how much could have arrived from other provinces, how did it get into the two prisons, and when the lockdown ends, how do we ensure the action does not transfer?
Dismantling these and other need to be carefully planned.
Cedric de la Harpe