Gauteng, no matter what the system would like me to believe, had levelled out off the initial 120 International Virus carriers by Day 1, and according to all the international experts, I listen to on the TV, one this levelling takes place the ‘reproductive ratio’ is down to Ro of 1, this is the stage, when one infected person, on average, only infects 1 further person.
This is no magic state of the virus, very simply the system has control of the new infections, and as this takes place, so the reproductive rate decreases, till it disappears.
Gauteng had 120 carriers with international travel credentials, and by March 22, there were 12 local infections.
I am of the opinion, that the majority of international travellers who tested positive were South African, as Mpumalanga and the Garden Route remains unscathed.
At this stage the system had complete control of the 132, and thus the dip in the Graph.
The majority of daily / low level employees, were paid off on March 25, unlike their suburban counterparts, they had no shopping time and under threat by the Police and Military that they would be arrested if they were found on the streets, they went shopping on Day 1&2.
I personally have no issue with what I saw, in terms of contraventions of the social separation concept, what I have seen since Day 1, is the close interaction with people who do not belong in the community, the media, the police, the military, and the ‘total lockdown’ volunteers.
The actions of the military and the police, and here I do not refer to the abuse, I am talking about the ‘close quarters’ interaction, there would have been no system assurance that one of these individuals were no carriers.
With Gauteng, having possibly lost some of their carriers to other Provinces, the Curve should have continued on the downward, trend, and within two weeks, Gauteng could have been cleared, instead, the movement of the curve has returned.
The ration of local infections, in elation to the 120 International Carriers, is 7,48 per carrier, April 17.
We need to watch the drastic movement that we see over the past two days, of great concern is the seven day trend curve, that indicates that these are not two stats that can be ignored.
Cedric de la Harpe