Kaalvoet Challenge to the ‘medical science’

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Kaalvoet suggests that the Coronavirus management, provided minds can understand the scientific reasons for why he has identified six countries as comparison, these comparisons will show conclusive evidence that South Africa should never have locked down.

Europe Link:        United Kingdom:   Italy:   Sweden:

No Lockdown:     Sweden:     Belarus:

Africa & Asia:     South Africa:    Pakistan

Graph 1:

Comparison:   Death rate, expressed as 7 day rolling average: 

Period Covered:   Day 15 after each Countries first reported Covid-19 death,  to Day 45. 

Graph 1
Graph 1

Kaalvoet Findings Graph 1:

United Kingdom and Italy, reach same level on Day 45, reason, both Countries exposed to the normal winter flu season, both population sizes very similar, both have a very high level of aged population, both have superior medical facilities, and both countries lifestyle is in the wealth group. 

Sweden does not lockdown, and off this graph, it shows no negative trend. 

South Africa, Pakistan, flat-line in comparison, and Belarus, who does not lockdown, is hidden in this flat-line.

Graph 2:

Comparison:   Death rate per 1 million of the population, expressed off a 7 day rolling average,  three countries.

Period Covered:   Day 15 after each Countries first reported Covid-19 death,  to Day 45.

Graph 2
Graph 2

 Kaalvoet Findings Graph 2:

Pakistan, (green) is the model that South Africa (black) could follow, Imran Khan removing restrictions on May 10.

Belarus, does not lockdown, and although the death rate per 1 million population, appears to be higher, Graph 3, will show it in comparison to Europe:

 Graph 3:

Comparison:   Death rate per 1 million of the population, , expressed off a 7 day rolling average, 3 plus 3 countries. 

Period Covered:   Day 15 after each Countries first reported Covid-19 death,  to Day 45.

Graph 3
Graph 3

 Kaalvoet Findings Graph 3:

Sweden who does not lockdown, ends day 45, at the same level as United Kingdom and Italy, on a comparative ratio of deaths per 1 million population, confirming that European model is related to all three Countries exposed to the normal winter flu season,   they have a very high level of aged population, they have superior medical facilities, and their countries lifestyle is in the wealth group. 

  In Comparison with the European Countries South Africa and Pakistan, should have followed the Belarus model. 

My final comment on the death rate, till lockdown is lifted.

Cedric de la Harpe

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