Dear White, Elite and middle-class South Africans,

Dear White, Elite and middle-class South Africans, who believe that “total lockdown” will keep the flu/coronavirus down to below 11 000, deaths. forgive me if I sound callous, but the collapse of the  economy, and the pain being suffered by the poverty groups, in order that we can save the lives of a few ‘White, Elite and middle-class South Africans’, is a human rights abuse, that exceeds the worst in history.

Just five days back I wrote an open letter to President Ramaphosa, it is ignored by his team, and ridiculed by the ‘total lockdown’ supporters, yesterday, I confidently announced that South Africa’s total lockdown had failed, and if it continues, it will contribute to the deaths of thousands of people.   These people will be mainly from the poverty communities, mainly black and coloured, I have news for you, ‘total lockdown’ has failed.

I have already answered your next assertion, but the blacks want us to save them, please read the Dear Comrades post before using this to attack my assertion ” ‘total lockdown’ has failed”.

There is only one statistic that is of importance, the deaths per 100 000 population, and it should not be counted daily, it should not be published daily, we are fighting a war, and the counting of ‘cases’ and ‘bodies’, can only be in the interests of those who will benefit from the ‘COUNT’.

When I write a letter to the President, five days back, the death count is 25, this is the most important statistic, five days back, it was 0,04253 per 100000 of the population. Five days later it had moved to 50, an 100% increase, and the statistic is now 0.08507 per 100000.

South Africa’s statistics is in the lower half of the Africa performances, yesterday, the Africa Continent, had recorded 966 deaths, @ 0,07944  per 100000.

What is South Africa’s predicted death rate, surely the President, and all his men, should have this figure, based on the statistics that we are using, before we commit economic suicide, by going to war against a hidden virus.

The USA entered the war, on a death prediction of 2 million souls, @ 523,28634 per 100000. The latest death total, is 32 230 @ 8,43276 per 100000.

In April 2018, the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, reports on the approaching Flu Season;

In South Africa, influenza (commonly known as flu) kills between 6000-11,000 people every year. About half of these deaths are in the elderly, and about 30% in HIV-infected people. The highest rates of hospitalization are in the elderly (65 years and older), HIV-infected people and children less than 5 years old. Pregnant women are also at increased risk of hospitalization and death from flu infections. People with chronic illnesses like diabetes, lung disease, tuberculosis and heart disease are also at increased risk of being hospitalized from the flu. 

During the flu season in South Africa about 8-10% of patients hospitalized for pneumonia and 25% of patients with flu-like illness (fever and cough) will test positive for influenza.

This is a fairly large range, and for the purposes on my comment, will be average the 6 000 – 11 000  as our annual base line deaths, according to the NICD, about 50% of the deaths are in the elder group.

Using the average of the 6 to 11 thousand as 8 500, our death rate for normal seasonal flu is  @ 14,46199 per 10000, if it reaches the top of the seasonal range of 11 000, our death statistic would be, @ 18,71788 per 100000. 

The USA is very carefully only predicting that they can keep the death rate to 60 000, @ 15,59859 per 100000, the  USA Coronavirus death rate, is what South Africa suffer annually, on average, as part of seasonal flu.

Any specific questions asked with regard to this post, I will answer, any comment that will not allow us restore our people to the time before coronavirus, I will delete.

Any Academic, who would like to give direction to a wayward mind, by providing explanations and the scientific models, proven and tested, that motivated the sacrificing of our economy, and condemning our poverty groups      to imprisonment, in conditions that you no prisoner is allowed to suffer, your input is welcome.

Cedric de la Harpe;

WARNING, this is not approved by the WHO, it is penned by a 73 year-old white South African, who does not support the ‘total lockdown’ for the negative  impact it has on the economy, and in particular, the poverty groups.