An open letter to Dr Tedros, #WHO.

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An open letter to Dr Tedros, #WHO.

Dear @DrTedros 

I have abused my President the President of South Africa, when the questions I have been asking him, would be in your realm to answer?

I have personally heard you say, that the Coronavirus is not a flu, it is more deadly than any flu that the world has ever experienced. (granted, only heard on TV, and this could be fake news)  

Do you rate the Coronavirus,  more deadly than the 1918 Spanish Flu, which killed 2% of the African population, including  6,6% of the South African black population, a total of 300 000 black souls died in 42 days, a healthy labour force, aged between 18 and 40 years-old.

This leads me to my next question;

“Both the USA and United Kingdom, and attempting to assess why the Coronavirus is proportionately killing more black people than whites? Does the WHO.int have any opinion on this quandary?”

I ask this question, as South Africa’s 1918 Spanish Flu experience was that only 11 000 whites died, only 0,88% of the white population.

As an aged white South African, would this ratio still apply during the Coronavirus, if not, why not?

I have attempted to answer my own questions with regard to the comparison between Coronavirus and Influenza, the USA appears to have published their last flu death tally on March 14, 2020, and Italy, published their last flu death tally on January 23, 2020.

My conclusion to the comparison between Coronavirus and Influenza, is that it will take the medical researchers and statisticians, five years of research, to establish whether the Coronavirus victims, would be part of the seasonal influenza / pneumonia death tallies in the world.

My assessment, is that the 2020 statistics for both Coronavirus and Flu, would fall within the maximum 5 years limits over the past five years occurrences.

One last question, 

“Do you accept that we, the South African community, by sacrificing our economy, our livelihoods, many starving, will have saved tens of thousands of lives.

Your answers and guidance will be greatly appreciated.

Kind regards

Cedric de la Harpe

@Iama_Victim

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Dear President, your speech, invites another open letter

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@PresidencyZA              @CyrilRamaphosa

Mr. President, for the first time I hear the aims of how many lives we are saving, “tens of thousands” by sacrificing South Africa’s economy, and our individual freedom and opportunity to feed and educate our families.

Voice of Reason, what would your community do?
Voice of Reason, what would your community do?

My ‘Voice of Reason’ considers the fact that throughout the World, since the introduction of the Free Market, early 1980s, economic and social stratification takes place, where the rich get richer, and the poor poorer, very simply, by buying from China, and other Asian countries, the manufacturing sector moves to the new suppliers, and employment removed from South Africans, any many countries.

Mr. President, I consider the greatest Human Rights abuse in the world, to be any Government, that fails to provide an opportunity for a parent, to feed and educate their children.

Even during World War II, when our fathers went to war to fight for the Commonwealth, our mothers were able to move freely, sourcing food and educating us children, even if they needed to stand in the food queue.

When our fathers were sent to War, the Government, gave no consideration to whether our fathers died for the flag, or how many innocent persons they would be required to kill.

As an 73 year-old man, should the Coronavirus take my life, I will accept it, what I can’t accept, is that for reasons unknown to me, my human rights are abused, and millions of people around the world’s human rights are being abused.

Mr. President, the billions of rand that our Prime Ministers / Presidents have pledged since 1902, has only reached the select minority, linked to the controlling economical and political force.

Towards the end of your President’s speech, April 21, I hear you say that part of the ‘restoration’ process, would be to re-introduce manufacturing back into South Africa.

Manufacturing disappeared in the early 1980s, and it can never be reintroduced, unless the Global Market makes that decision, the Free Market, buys where they wish, and sells where they wish how does the “President’s advisors”, during a period of 26 days, while they are directing the fight against the Coronavirus, make plans to manufacture, in competition with the Free Market.

It is common knowledge, that South Africa does not have the funds to cover the recovery of Eskom, SAA, to keep PRASA, the Post Office, the SABC, operating without regular bale-outs, so I believe that the trillions you have committed to restoration, will come from International loans, funding that will give the Global Market, the power to take control of South Africa.

Mr. President, world leaders are trapped in the control of all things ‘social and economic’ by the very wealthy families of the world, you likewise, are trapped in the China / USA trade conflict, which has trapped the international investors, and all the ‘unusual decisions / actions’ taking place around the world, are part of is Global Market restructuring of their Free Market.

Mr. President, if you are following the Chinese model, and you must be doing so, if you quote the saving of tens of thousands of lives, how do you respond to our China model, on April 07, they have nil deaths, ‘reported’ and lockdown is removed.

We look at the China model:

Period:   01 Jan  to Feb 12   1114 deaths @ ave 25,90/day 

Period:   03 Feb  to Apr 07  2012 deaths @ ave 36,58/day

On April 07 China reports nil deaths, and removes lockdown

Period:   08 Apr  to Apr 21  1506 deaths @ ave 107,57/day

Most Countries around the world, have experienced a ‘second wave of infection’, after removing lockdown, and both China and Japan, attribute the second wave of infection, to the ‘returning migrant workers’, and South Africa, who not only have migrant workers from our rural communities, but from Mozambique and Lesotho also.

Mr. President, we have been exposed to Coronavirus for 52 days, and our death total is 58, @ a rate of 0,0987 per 100000 of our population, when China goes through their 52 days, their death toll is 2918, @ a rate of 0,1941 per 100000.

The China death rate is 2,02 times higher than the South African rate at the same stage exposure, and 55 days later they have only moved to 4632 deaths, @ a rate of 0,3309 per 100000.

Mr. President, I call upon you, to provide details of how you have established that we are in the process of saving ‘tens of thousands of lives’. 

China had reached a level of no deaths of April 07, coinciding with the removal of lockdown, South Africa, I am not sure which model they are presently following, but have started opening lockdown, without me seeing the hidden model, or target that they had aimed for.

As an old man, having challenged the Free Market for many years, my mindset, once China and the USA go into conflict, sees the Global Market move into restructuring the markets, once China go into lockdown, on of South Africa’s main suppliers, may I add, at the expense of ‘buy South Africa’ all countries who buy from China, need to follow them into ‘lockdown’.

If we did not go into lockdown, our wholesalers and retailers would not have stock on the shelves, exposing the Global Markets weakness to the rest of the world, and as South Africa and other countries start to provide for themselves, it would be the end of the Free Market.

The Global Market required South Africa’s lockdown, and today, they place South Africa in a position, where you Mr. President, will not be able to maintain, total lockdown of the formal economy.

China and Japan are producing, and as a major customer of these countries, the Ports needed to be opened, in the interim, the investors of the Global World, need the mining industry to produce.

The Wine exports nearly started, but I am of the opinion that the Global Market is not ready to receive the wine, not till the Global Market removes the restrictions on alcohol outlets.

Mr. President, I have no bone to pick with you, the Global Market has dictated your actions, I personally have no objection to how you remove lockdown, the control that the world economy has, requires the formal economy to participate in the Global World, my only requirement is that we accept that we will have between 6000 and 11000 deaths before September 2020, open the informal economy urgently, this will relieve the pressures of the agricultural economy, as we get supplies into the majority of the population.

Our farmers are unable to sell their all the produce, and our poverty groups can benefit from cheap prices, until the economy returns to normal.

But then, our Corporate Supermarkets, part of the Global World, may lose their link permanently.

Please allow the African families to bury their families according to their culture, the family will protect the family and their communities. If we do not do this, the bodies will pile up, traditionally, we have 100 000 elderly dying every year,not related to the Coronavirus, they have a Human Right, to bury their elders according to their culture.

My blogs are published in the interests of the poverty groups, and your Consultants and Advisors are welcome to contact me, maybe they could give me the motivations for why our Human Rights should be abused?

Till you next public address.

Cedric de la Harpe

cedric@cedricdelaHarpe.co.za

 

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South Africa should prepare for 6000 deaths;

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Lockdown is aimed at saving lives, and at no stage has the system identified how many lives we can save, and how many deaths we can expect.

This blog, calls for you to apply your own ‘Voice of Reason’ to where South Africa health and depressed economy is, and not accept what you hear from others, including me.

Voice of Reason, what would your community do?
Voice of Reason, what would your community do?

Although South Africa, is only entering the Coronavirus exponential curve for the deaths that are occurring, South Africa enters the removal of the ‘lockdown’.

April 20 SA Deaths
April 20 SA Deaths

Coronavirus first comes to my attention on February 12, 2020, I had just completed the manuscript, Human Dictate, based on my prediction that the world economic and political structures would bring our new world order between 2023 and 2028, and encourage South Africans to prepare for the new order, that I name Human Dictate.

Coinciding with my move to promote Human Dictate, the Coronavirus comes to my attention, and that conflict exists between the USA and China, and my first assessment of what is taking place, is that the virus is man made, and the intention of the virus, is to allow economic powers to reestablish the large powers, diminishing control over the world global market.

In China, the virus appeared to have exploded like a bomb, infecting and killing 1 114 in some six weeks.

Today April 21, 2020, as we start to reopen our economy, our leaders having followed China as on of the models, must be aware that death is unavoidable,   following the China model, our leaders must prepare our population, for the imminent deaths, that are already escalating.

We look at the China model:

Period:   01 Jan  to Feb 12   1114 deaths @ ave 25,90/day 

Period:   03 Feb  to Apr 07  2012 deaths @ ave 36,58/day

On April 07 China reports nil deaths, and removes lockdown

Period:   08 Apr  to Apr 21  1506 deaths @ ave 107,57/day

Most Countries around the world, have experienced a ‘second wave of infection’, after removing lockdown, and both China and Japan, attribute the second wave of infection, to the ‘returning migrant workers’, and South Africa, who not only have migrant workers from our rural communities, but from Mozambique and Lesotho also.

China had reached a level of no deaths of April 07, coinciding with the removal of lockdown, South Africa, I am not sure which model they are presently following, but have started opening lockdown, without me seeing the hidden model, or target that they had aimed for.

The Global Market, supported South Africa’s lockdown, and today, they place South Africa in a position where the President will not be able to maintain, total lockdown of the formal economy.

China and Japan are producing, and as a major customer of these countries, the Ports need to be opened, in the interim, the investors of the Global World, need the mining industry to produce.

The Wine exports nearly started, but I am of the opinion that the Global Market is not ready to receive the wine, not till the Global Market removes the restrictions on alcohol outlets.

I personally have no objection to how the President is removing lockdown, the situation that the world economy is in, requires the formal economy to participate in the Global World, my suggestion is that we open the informal economy urgently, we will relieve of agricultural economy.

Every South African needs to have their minds freed from the fear of Coronavirus, and we all need to accept that we are going to have deaths, the following graph (Red Line) indicates that we could have as many as 8 500 deaths, as a Country, our target should be 6 000, we have had a lot of preparation for what is coming.

Kaalvoet Coronavirus deaths curve predictions
Kaalvoet Coronavirus deaths curve prediction

The other lines on the graph, is South Africa seasonal flu deaths, that take place every year, minimum and maximum, provided we are allowed to live our lives, and bury our dead without restriction, the bodies will not pile up.

The only issue that I have not discussed yet, is just how many seasonal virus deaths, will compete with Corona?

Cedric de la Harpe

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FIRST STEP TO RECOVERY

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Voice of Reason:

On April 02, 2020, Amazon-KDP,  blocked the manuscript with the title,  Voice of Reason, this, in my opinion, is due to the cover, and in particular, the question asked on the Cover;

Voice of Reason, what would your community do?
Voice of Reason, what would your community do?

I obviously would have handled it differently, and thus the  manuscript, and in particular my question.

My intention when writing the  manuscript, very simply, was to get every South African, to start thinking about how they would handle every aspect that effects, or,  affects their lives.

On April 05, 2020,  I entered social media with  post, showing that the Coronavirus projected exponential curve, had flattened, but indicated that I expected spikes from April 05 to 09, and that I would remain exiled from Social Media, till this period is over.

The Curve levels off.
The Curve levels off.

Importantly, as I provide my input on moving forward, this above graph, i celebrate, not because the Curve was flattening, but I Scientists and Consultants, had set their understanding of what they were trying to achieve, the lockdown would flatten the exponential curve, projected to achieve 5000 positive cases by April 01.

The Curve had ‘flattened’ and the system should have maintained the status quo, the system had tested 44 292 by April 01, and testing is introduced with a vengeance on April 01,  in the next fifteen days, another 50 000 tests are conducted, and the projected 5 000 positives are still days away.

This is my last comment on testing and the number of cases, from now I only discuss the deaths and death ratios, if it is lives we are saving, let us talk life and death.

Our “First Step to Recovery” is to scrutinise a few ‘selected countries’ and their death ratios on April 19, 2020,  (fig below) your comments on the death ratios is invited, should you wish me to add a specific country of interest to the table. Please advise me on email.

I make no comment on my next move, death and death ratios, life and death statistics, will allow us to move forward.

death ratios / 100000
death ratios / 100000

Cedric de la Harpe

cedric@cedricdelaharpe.co.za

 

 

 

 

 

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INFECTED THROUGH INTENT OR GROSS NEGLIGENCE?

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FOOLS RUSH IN WHERE WISE MEN FEAR TO TREAD

In the USA, the coloured population have a higher death rate than the whites, and yesterday, during the 10 Downing Street media questions, it was admitted that the trend is showing in many of the United Kingdom areas, and they were very concerned about the trend and they needed to investigate it.

For days my black brothers and sisters have questioned this white old man about whether there is not an outside force directing the virus into the black communities, with intent, as happened in the spread of HIV. (Any one wish to question one of the videos sent to me, I will forward it with pleasure.)

The latest question with  video, posted to me last night, this causes me to go to the only detailed figures published, that of the Western Cape Provincial Government, and my conclusion is;

“Whether the infection was done through intent or gross negligence, only the responsible persons can answer thereto.”

The  Kyayalitsha and Mitchells Plain, Coronavirus   Curve Graph, and the official announcement by the Premier, provides the ‘Voice of Reason’ that brings  my conclusion, the trigger that frees Coronavirus Curve,  takes place between April 03, and April 06, when the news is published, and the Graph below, fills in the details;

I quote an April 06, published report that could have been implement from April 03?

6 April 2020

View all News

The Minister of Community Safety, Albert Fritz, commends the 500 newly deployed law enforcement officers, appointed through the Western Cape Safety Plan, who are playing a commendable role in supporting the enforcement of the lockdown. The law enforcement officers are supporting SAPS and SANDF as part of a joint effort.

Law Enforcement Advancement Plan (LEAP) law enforcement officers are supporting the lockdown by:

Working in 12-hour shifts at the Strandfontein SafeSpace to ensure that homeless individuals are kept safe;

Supporting the Covid-19 response team by operating in conjunction with SAPS and the Anti-Gang Unit to perform Covid-19 related operations and crime prevention operations within the various clusters;

Being deployed within the 8 clusters attending to Covid-19 complaints dispatched by the107 Control Centre; and

Assisting in the 8 clusters with a response team attached to the Covid-19 response team, particularly in response to gatherings, events and taverns operating in the respective areas.

Minister Fritz said, “I wish to commend the 500 newly deployed law enforcement officers who are supporting the joint command of SAPS and SANDF. These officers have been deployed in the Khayelitsha, Lenteqeur, Nyanga (including Bishop Lavis), Milnerton, Bellville, Wynberg, Delft, and Cape Town clusters. Additionally, they are supporting the Covid-19 response team and the Strandontein SafeSpace established to protect homeless individuals during the outbreak.”

“Over the course of the lockdown period, we have seen a staggering decline in crime and, in particular, alleged murder admissions or suspected murders. In the 14th week of 2020, there 31 suspected murders. Whilst this remains 31 deaths too many, this figure is considerably lower than the same period last year in which there were 105 suspected murders. In total, that marks a 70.5% decrease in suspected murders,” said Minister Fritz.

End of extracted quote:

Kyayalitsh and Mitchells Plain
Kyayalitsh and Mitchells Plain

Cedric de la Harpe

 

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Gauteng home to 120 International Carriers.

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Gauteng, no matter what the system would like me to believe, had levelled out off the initial 120 International Virus carriers by Day 1, and according to all the international experts, I listen to on the TV, one this levelling takes place the ‘reproductive ratio’ is down to Ro of 1, this is the stage, when one infected person, on average, only infects 1 further person.

This is no magic state of the virus, very simply the system has control of the new infections, and as this takes place, so the reproductive rate decreases, till it disappears.

Gauteng had 120 carriers with international travel credentials,  and by March 22, there were 12 local infections.

I am of the opinion, that the majority of international travellers who tested positive were South African, as Mpumalanga and the Garden Route remains unscathed.

At this stage the system had complete control of the 132, and thus the dip in the Graph.

The majority of daily / low level employees, were paid off on March 25, unlike their suburban counterparts, they had no shopping time and under threat by the Police and Military that they would be arrested if they were found on the streets, they went shopping on Day 1&2.

I personally have no issue with what I saw, in terms of contraventions of the social separation concept, what I have seen since Day 1, is the close interaction with people who do not belong in the community, the media, the police, the military, and the ‘total lockdown’ volunteers.

The actions of the military and the police, and here I do not refer to the abuse, I am talking about the ‘close quarters’ interaction, there would have been no system assurance  that one of these individuals were no carriers.

With Gauteng, having possibly lost some of their carriers to other Provinces, the Curve should have continued on the downward, trend, and within two weeks, Gauteng could have been cleared, instead, the movement of the curve has returned.

Gauteng Coronavirus Curve
Gauteng Coronavirus Curve

The ration of local infections, in elation to the 120 International Carriers, is 7,48 per carrier, April 17.

We need to watch the drastic movement that we see over the past two days, of great concern is the seven day trend curve, that indicates that these are not two stats that can be ignored.

Cedric de la Harpe

 

 

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UNPLANNED LOCKDOWN TRANSFERS VIRUS TO UNSUSPECTING

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Coronavirus the “SPREAD ACTION 1”

When the President unexpectedly announces the “lockdown” the management of the process would appear to have given no consideration to the large percentage of our population that are still migrant labourers.

When Easter Shut Down arrives, the Townships empty, as both migrant workers, and family descendants head for their village homes.

In this example I use the Zulu nation, where the largest percentage of their population, live in extremely rural areas, many of the elders, only speaking the Zulu Language, and  would ned to rely on  local radio station for communication.

A large percentage of the Hostel communities, only speak Zulu.

The ‘Lockdown, comes very suddenly and unexpected, on March 24, 2020, the announcement comes unexpectedly that a ‘Lockdown’ will commences on the March 26, 2020, everything will be closed for 3 weeks, this announcement is tantamount to an instruction for the migrant workers to go back to the family.

The migrant is feeling healthy, there is no reason for him not to go to the family, to see them through the ‘lockdown’.

The family are no wiser, and they receive the breadwinner, as they do every year.

Maybe 200 000 Zulus move from Gauteng to KwaZulu-Natal?

For those of us who know KwaZulu-Natal. millions of people live in areas that are almost inaccessible.

The departure starts early on the morning of March 25, and probable infection date, for a new groups of cases is from March 25, given my very unscientific assessment of 9 to 11 days, the cases should show from Friday 03, 2020.

I present the graph, with no assessment, but welcome questions.

Impact of Coronavirus on KwaZulu-Natal

My conclusion that this incubator of the virus, was as the result of the movement back home, due directly to the Lockdown, is based on the following parameters.

GAUTENG:

On March 22, Gauteng has 124 cases, all linked to international travel, and 12 locally infected cases.

For comparative proposes, I compare the Gauteng Local  infections on March 17, 2020, 1018 cases, I divide the local infections with the base International Travel of 120, and the result is the growth of 7,48 times each base case.

KWAZULU-NATAL:

On March 22, KwaZulu-Natal has 36 cases, all linked to international travel, and 5 locally infected cases.

For comparative proposes, I compare the 2, KwaZulu-Natal Local  infections on March 17, 2020, 591 cases, I divide the local infections with the base International Travel of 31, and the result is the growth of 18,66 times each base case.

Danger Signals:

When the Government had control of the cases on March 22, no such movement should have been allowed.

The death statistics in KwaZulu-Natal, is the highest, in the Country, and effectively, all removal of restrictions from today, must consider how we isolate the virus in KwaZul-Natal, and ensure that any returning citizen, is considered to be returning from a high-risk area.    

East London:

We need to give consideration to the origins of the virus in the East London area, how much could have arrived from other provinces, how did it get into the two prisons, and when the lockdown ends, how do we ensure the action does not transfer?

Eastern Province trend

Dismantling these and other need to be carefully planned.

 

Cedric de la Harpe

 

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No BOOZE, no CIGARETTES”  His Master’s Voice:

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Early every morning, I walk down to the local super-market, the store identity will remain a secret, to protect others who may be involved.

My brother allows me to scratch through the waste bins, picking at what is edible, always I will find an unopened bread, which I need to slip into my carrier back, out of site of the surveillance cameras, then as I leave, I walk way without  sideward glance at my brother.

This loaf will keep my wife and I alive, till tomorrow, I walk around the shopping area, looking for an alcohol bottle that my just have found its way onto my path, and maybe just that top of anything that I have craved for 23 days now, but alas, hundreds of thirsty and hungry feet have already swept the pavements of Johannesburg.

For the past two weeks, no longer can the smallest cigarette butt be found, life switches between the need for food, nicotine, and alcohol.

The nicotine and alcohol, banned to protect my elderly immune system, an immune system that has thrived on this habit for years, today, for the first time, I feel my immune system to be compromised, and compromised by the withdrawal symptoms that won’t  go away.

I pass the traffic-light intersection, on the eight corners, hobos, pedlars, traffickers, individually, but united, trying to sell drugs to me my mindset is tempted, I consider the dagga, it does after-all contain healing elements, and it will satisfy both needs.

Maybe when the virus attacks me, my wife will understand if I bring the drugs home.

My last port of call, is a walk past the bottle store, at this stage, the urge is great, but I am to afraid to use the tool that I carry in my bag, just in case. I leave it on the criminal element who are attacking bottle-stores around the country, but I am never so lucky.

Every Radio and TV programme, promotes their support for the total lockdown, these calls ring in my mind every step that I take, hidden in the message, is that things will return to normal when this is all over.

I no longer know what ‘this’ is, and I can’t see my daily ritual ever changing returning to normal.

Will there ever be a normal?

Kaalvoet:

When I get home, I Google research all day very day, complements a neighbours Wi-fi, desperately looking for President Ramaphosa’s as yet disclosed scientific / medical research that confirms that the Coronavirus, attaches you, because of the nicotine or alcohol.

This morning I find what I am looking for, one of South Africa’s “His Master’s Voice” the surgeon general of the USA,  and I quote the full article:

New York Times:

Why Coronavirus Is Killing African-Americans More Than Others

Higher rates of infection and death among minorities demonstrate the racial character of inequality in America.

By Jamelle Bouie

Opinion Columnist

April 14, 2020

We know that Covid-19 is killing African-Americans at greater rates than any other group. You can see this most clearly in the South. In Louisiana, blacks account for 70 percent of the deaths but 33 percent of the population. In Alabama, they account for 44 percent of the deaths and 26 percent of the population. South Carolina and Georgia have yet to release information on death disparities, but in both states blacks are more likely to be infected than whites. The pattern exists in the North as well, where African-American populations in cities like Chicago and Milwaukee have high infection and death rates.

Federal officials have tied these disparities to individual behavior — the surgeon general of the United States, Jerome Adams, who is African-American, urged blacks and other communities of color to “avoid alcohol, tobacco and drugs” as if this was a particular problem for those groups. 

The Kaalvoet Comment:

The paragraph supra, researched by the United States surgeon general,  Jerome Adams, is the only research that I can find, and based on this research, we extend ‘the no smoking, no drinking’ principle, in South Africa.

The author of this New Your Times article,  in the balance of this article infra, confirms my white Apartheid mindset, they are inclined to be infected,  and they will bring their infection into the ‘service sector jobs’  I should sacrifice, as this will prevent the blacks from moving into my safe zone, which will cause my death.

The author, Jamelle Bouie continues;

In truth, black susceptibility to infection and death in the coronavirus pandemic has everything to do with the racial character of inequality in the United States.

To use just a few, relevant examples, black Americans are more likely to work in service sector jobs, least likely to own a car and least likely to own their homes. They are therefore more likely to be in close contact with other people, from the ways they travel to the kinds of work they do to the conditions in which they live.

Today’s disparities of health flow directly from yesterday’s disparities of wealth and opportunity. That African-Americans are overrepresented in service-sector jobs reflects a history of racially segmented labor markets that kept them at the bottom of the economic ladder; that they are less likely to own their own homes reflects a history of stark housing discrimination, state-sanctioned and state-sponsored. And if black Americans are more likely to suffer the comorbidities that make Covid-19 more deadly, it’s because those ailments are tied to the segregation and concentrated poverty that still mark their communities.

What’s important to understand is that this racialized inequality isn’t a mistake — it isn’t a flaw in the system. It reflects something in the character of American capitalism itself, a deep logic that produces the same outcomes, again and again.

South Africa’s lockdown system, is aimed at protecting me, and elderly white suburbanite, at the expense of innocent lives of the  people ‘who would not listen’.

Cedric de la Harpe

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Dear White, Elite and middle-class South Africans,

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Dear White, Elite and middle-class South Africans, who believe that “total lockdown” will keep the flu/coronavirus down to below 11 000, deaths. forgive me if I sound callous, but the collapse of the  economy, and the pain being suffered by the poverty groups, in order that we can save the lives of a few ‘White, Elite and middle-class South Africans’, is a human rights abuse, that exceeds the worst in history.

Just five days back I wrote an open letter to President Ramaphosa, it is ignored by his team, and ridiculed by the ‘total lockdown’ supporters, yesterday, I confidently announced that South Africa’s total lockdown had failed, and if it continues, it will contribute to the deaths of thousands of people.   These people will be mainly from the poverty communities, mainly black and coloured, I have news for you, ‘total lockdown’ has failed.

I have already answered your next assertion, but the blacks want us to save them, please read the Dear Comrades post before using this to attack my assertion ” ‘total lockdown’ has failed”.

There is only one statistic that is of importance, the deaths per 100 000 population, and it should not be counted daily, it should not be published daily, we are fighting a war, and the counting of ‘cases’ and ‘bodies’, can only be in the interests of those who will benefit from the ‘COUNT’.

When I write a letter to the President, five days back, the death count is 25, this is the most important statistic, five days back, it was 0,04253 per 100000 of the population. Five days later it had moved to 50, an 100% increase, and the statistic is now 0.08507 per 100000.

South Africa’s statistics is in the lower half of the Africa performances, yesterday, the Africa Continent, had recorded 966 deaths, @ 0,07944  per 100000.

What is South Africa’s predicted death rate, surely the President, and all his men, should have this figure, based on the statistics that we are using, before we commit economic suicide, by going to war against a hidden virus.

The USA entered the war, on a death prediction of 2 million souls, @ 523,28634 per 100000. The latest death total, is 32 230 @ 8,43276 per 100000.

In April 2018, the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, reports on the approaching Flu Season;

In South Africa, influenza (commonly known as flu) kills between 6000-11,000 people every year. About half of these deaths are in the elderly, and about 30% in HIV-infected people. The highest rates of hospitalization are in the elderly (65 years and older), HIV-infected people and children less than 5 years old. Pregnant women are also at increased risk of hospitalization and death from flu infections. People with chronic illnesses like diabetes, lung disease, tuberculosis and heart disease are also at increased risk of being hospitalized from the flu. 

During the flu season in South Africa about 8-10% of patients hospitalized for pneumonia and 25% of patients with flu-like illness (fever and cough) will test positive for influenza.

This is a fairly large range, and for the purposes on my comment, will be average the 6 000 – 11 000  as our annual base line deaths, according to the NICD, about 50% of the deaths are in the elder group.

Using the average of the 6 to 11 thousand as 8 500, our death rate for normal seasonal flu is  @ 14,46199 per 10000, if it reaches the top of the seasonal range of 11 000, our death statistic would be, @ 18,71788 per 100000. 

The USA is very carefully only predicting that they can keep the death rate to 60 000, @ 15,59859 per 100000, the  USA Coronavirus death rate, is what South Africa suffer annually, on average, as part of seasonal flu.

Any specific questions asked with regard to this post, I will answer, any comment that will not allow us restore our people to the time before coronavirus, I will delete.

Any Academic, who would like to give direction to a wayward mind, by providing explanations and the scientific models, proven and tested, that motivated the sacrificing of our economy, and condemning our poverty groups      to imprisonment, in conditions that you no prisoner is allowed to suffer, your input is welcome.

April 17, 2020, the South African Coronavirus exponential curve, leaves the incubator.
April 17. 2020

Cedric de la Harpe;

WARNING, this is not approved by the WHO, it is penned by a 73 year-old white South African, who does not support the ‘total lockdown’ for the negative  impact it has on the economy, and in particular, the poverty groups.

 

 

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Dear Comrades in the Trenches

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Dear Comrades in the Trenches:   01

My open letter to the President, has resulted in a lengthy response, on the WhatsApp group, it is a mindset challenge that I need to answer, not necessarily, just as a courtesy to the contributor, but to every one of my friends and family, who feel that I am giving the economy, preference over life.

The following contribution fits into pamphlet 01, and the screenshot below is the important part, that I need to answer satisfactorily;

Comment on Dear President
Comment on Dear President

We have been shown the Italian Coronavirus Curve, that is frightening, ours not, we do have escalation, the one example is the East London prison, that is climbing.

Coronavirus Curves
Coronavirus Curves

South Africa’s infections, can’t be compared with the Italian Coronavirus Curve, firstly, Italy was in their seasonal flu season, but as the Coronavirus Curve, reportedly attacks the elders, we look at how far apart we are, my assessment questions whether the experts have any medical or scientific theory to make a decision on the Western European curves;

The Italian population density is 4,20 times greater than in South Africa, and the percentage of the population over the age of 65 years 3,70 times greater than South Africa.

Italy versus South Africa's FACTOR
Italy versus South Africa’s FACTOR

We are shutting down our economy, when the Countries life expectancy does not allow many to get to 65, if the economy shuts down, the life expectancy will dip.

South Africa Life Expectancy
South Africa Life Expectancy

As a community, we need to be aware of those elderly who have medical conditions, because when our flu season arrives in May, the Coronavirus will be back.

If we look at Stats SA 2016 survey, 100 000 elderly people dies, and 80 000 of them died from causes that could be attributed to compromised immune system / underlying causes, do we attribute these normal deaths to Coronavirus, or can we expect 80 000 on top of these deaths.

Ten Causes of Death, among persons aged 60.
Ten Causes of Death, among persons aged 60.

I consider myself a ‘racist in recovery’, and often I have great difficult in expressing my thoughts, however, my white mindset, feared that this would happen, long before I discovered the history on the Spanish Flu, and this mindset, would be entrenched in every white European.

South Africa, having received the first 250 infected international travellers from March 01, 2020, has one of the lowest death rates, per 100 000 population in the world.

Africa is unexpectedly low, parts of Eastern Europe not far behind in the ‘low stakes’.

The African and Eastern European communities, for the past two hundred years, have needed to protect themselves from the pressures that they faced, in order to just to feed and educate themselves, and with a very limited medical service, these communities have needed to survive, by avoiding the medical obstacles.

These communities may not know what the Coronavirus is, but when there is a threat to their lives, they know how to protect themselves from the threat, they know how to survive.

On the other extreme, the Westerner needs to have any perceived threat in lockdown, for fifty years, they have not exposed themselves to any danger.

From a young child, they leave their home in mom’s car, and never get exposed to the danger outside the gate, high fences and the black security guard, protects them from the perceived threat.

The African children, throughout Africa, are street-wise from a very young age, the African children without ever becoming aware that they are being skilled, develop all their parents skills, and the most important skill developed, is the ‘survival skill’.

No medical or scientifically proven theory, has yet shown me that the ‘black people are going to die like flies’.

If I for one minute, believed that the blacks would die like flies, I would not concern myself about what is left of the economy when the storm has passed, there would be fewer people to feed, and those who survived the storm, would be grateful for what they could get.

I know the conditions that my black brothers and sisters live in, and when I saw news reports on Day 1 of the lockdown, my white mindset feared the projected 5 000 infections by April 01, 2020, my indigenous experienced mindset, had confidence that my black brothers and sisters would survive, and thus, with the economy destroyed, I feared for them.

I watched the statistics, and by April 05, I was surprised that the graph had not started moving exponentially.

When the system talks about restoring the Economy, this does not include he informal economy, in no text-book, in no curriculum, will you find the informal economy as part of the Capitalists thinking.

80% of the Africa population, live a life in the informal economy, this economy has fed and educated the masses in Africa, the Global World Brains Trust, know and understand the concept of load-shedding, our Electricity Supply Commission, our most experienced participant.

Very simply, once a network totally shuts down, getting it started is impossible, thus, load-shedding is aimed a keeping the system flow, even though at a reduced level, this keeps the entire system prepared to supply, when the ‘technicality’ is repaired.

The local taxi industry, the informal traders, the shebeens, the spaza shops, are the basis of the ‘black economy’, businesses that the black has developed, through the inconvenience of the white capitalist to get too close to the black population, has been shut down.

These industries are worth billions to the Global Market, who are preparing to move into the Townships and Rural Villages, as the informal and SMMEs are waiting for the promised funding that keeps them quiet while in the trenches.

Now back to the whether the ‘blacks will die like flies’?

Before I opened my mouth about the possibility that South Africa does not have an exponential virus curve because of the season, I scrutinised Europe, and found great discrepancies in certain areas, and the flu season was not the main contributor.

Nigeria, where the flu season ran from October to April, much like Italy, for the population has an extremely low Coronavirus death rate expressed as a percentage of the population, some 14 times less than South Africa.

Africa Coronavirus Summary
Africa Coronavirus Summary

Africa at this stage only has 835 deaths, at the percentage of population, 0,0000687%.

Eastern Europe, in the seasonal flu zone?

I accept that the Coronavirus is contagious, the African and parts of the Eastern European communities, unexpectedly, do not follow the Western European exponential infection curve.

Anyone following the Coronavirus news, will be aware of the Belarus President who rejected the Lockdown, kept his borders open, the Football league continued with spectators, the Ice Hockey league continued with spectators, and the world watch his country.

Belarus President, Alexander Lukashenko, does not Lockdown, and claims that none of his people will die from Coronavirus, not unless they have underlying medical conditions.

Having assessed his statistics, I looked at his neighbours, and one of which is Russia, this group completely different, still 5 times worse than South Africa, but hundreds of times better than Western Europe;

Belarus and neighbours   The next page compares the very vastly different Coronavirus deaths expressed as percentage of the population, expressed as  a ratio to 1 death in South Africa, and 1 death in Africa Total:

The percentage death ratio on population, 

                                   to 1  South African death,          to   1 Africa Total death

Japan                                        2,16                                          1,41

Russia +                                  4,95                                          3,24

China                                        5,31                                           3,48

USA                                        132,92                                        87,07

United Kingdom               376,32                                     246,50

France                                 496,42                                      325,16

Italy                                      732,60                                      479,87

The Westerner fears the Coronavirus, Japan does not go into total lockdown, keeping their economy stable, if it was not for the Western teams withdrawing from the Olympics, Japan would have gone ahead.

World Summary Comparisons
World Summary Comparisons 

China is back in business, Russia is issuing permission to travel.

My wife and I are both 70 >, we will be one of the elderly death statistics if not in 2020, but soon, I can’t ask anyone to sacrifice their economy, while I need to survive another season under lockdown.

The Global Market Brains Trust, will decide when the war to save lives is over, the death statistics will be forgotten. The majority of the population, suffering human rights abuses, will celebrate the aggressor, the victor, no matter what shape, what form, what colour they are, with welcome waves, as the drink, clothing, and food supply trucks move in.

Cedric de la Harpe

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