The “If we don’t lockdown” CON

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There is no scientific study, that would prove the ‘if we don’t lockdown’ theory, and no Government should be allowed to sacrifice the Countries economy, in the interests of the possibility that people would die, it needs to be based on fact, and scientific theory does not rest in the Social and Political media.

South Africa has always followed our Europe and USA models, we lockdown, even when the Coronavirus Curve is not moving in the direction forecast, our death rate per 100000 is one of the lowest in the world, yet we are still following. Even though the Europe and USA populations are sill dying in the hundreds per day, they are opening their economy, and if you follow CNN or SkyNews, we are all going through the same stage of unlocking, walking your dogs and exercising.

Europe and the USA are telling the world that they Curve has levelled, and that the infection and death rate is on the decline, South Africa Government is telling the human population, that the worst is still to come.

Scientific Conclusions would take a few years of research, and a very large sample, and the Voice of Reason says that, before any Political Force removes ‘opportunity’, it should be in the greater interest of the human majority’s livelihood, therefore, the new virus, should , over a period of a few years, have killed more people than the common flu, and in particular, started killing at a younger, and healthier sample of the Human population.

Every person in South Africa, should be aware that our Government has set a precedent, we are now saving human lives rather than the rhino lives, it is an impossible commitment, we are failing to save the rhino, and we will fail to save the unseen, unidentified human.

The Global World is in the process of resetting the World Order, the actual of cost of life, the impact of the depressed economy on the poverty group, is of no concern to the 1% of the world, that owns 50% of the world today, the world has already made the poverty groups aware that it will take many years for the economy to recover.

The Coronavirus management, driven by the ‘if we don’t lockdown’ theory, has set Africa up to be recolonised, not by any particular Country, but by the Economic players of the world, that has used the virus as a war instrument, the Coronavirus has not destroyed Africa, it has destroyed Africa through the manipulation of the mind.

80% of Africa, lives a life in the Sustainable Informal Economy, that the ‘if we don’t lockdown’ theory has closed down, other than the mineral wealth, already controlled by foreigners, the African economy thrives on tourism, that the ‘if we don’t lockdown’ theory has closed down.

Africa, including South Africa, under the African Union, continues to call for continued ‘lockdown’, in order to save the unidentified victims. If South Africa extends ‘lockdown’ of he informal economy for any more days, even those who support ‘total lockdown’, will join the throngs of people standing along the roads, waving, and welcoming our saviours, in 2023.                  

Old Dog

Cedric de la Harpe

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Medical research has been erased.

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Hi, I am Cedric de la Harpe, the Kaalvoet scientist, encouraged by a South African politician, the leader of the DA,  explaining his logic with regard to the number of Coronavirus cases in the Western Cape, “It is not rocket science”, my immediate reaction is yes, it is not rocket science, “It is Political Science”. 

On Twitter, a UK Politician aide, when challenged by families of cancer victims, whose death certificate noted Cause of Death as Coronavirus, responds as follows:

“If your mom did not get infected with Coronavirus, she may have lived to 80.”

South African politician, I believe will still used this concept as me move forward even though South Africa’s Life Expectancy rate, is just over 60:

South Africa Life Expectancy
South Africa Life Expectancy

My Kaalvoet qualifications are not traditional Western Academic, but then, what I knew as traditional Western Academic, was removed from the world by the Coronavirus, today all medical research has been wiped from the slate, political science dictates to the medical scientist, and the medical research will only take place over the next five years, the results may never be published for peer group review;

As Western Academia progressed during the past twenty years, more and more articles are published on “You can teach an old dog new tricks”, the  Coronavirus has proven that it is possible, all the third-force needed to do, was to ‘inoculate the herd of old dogs’, with Alzheimer’s disease, destroying the memory and other important mental functions.

As an old dog without Alzheimers’s disease, yet, I am one of the few dogs in the park that can remember, an old dog who has not bowed down to the typical abuse a dog must suffer, when the Master is training him.

I will continue to document what I know, as medical research, using a few of the files that have not yet been removed from the  world wide web, leaving a legacy for those who will one day wake up from a very deep sleep.

PMC Research on Influenza, South Africa, published on line Dec 02, 2017, research period 2009 to 2013:

1. INTRODUCTION

Estimation of the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza is important in public health as it can be used to inform the impact of influenza control policies and programs; however, such estimates are not easy to ascertain. Using influenza‐coded deaths usually grossly underestimate the burden of influenza‐associated deaths, as these deaths are more often complicated by secondary bacterial co‐infections or exacerbation of underlying chronic conditions or even cardiac complications.

These deaths are usually recorded with an underlying cause of death other than influenza. 

In South Africa, the mortality risk is further compounded by high HIV prevalence, which puts HIV patients at a much higher risk of influenza‐related mortality and other opportunistic infections. This adds another level of uncertainty in the recorded underlying cause of death.

3.2. Observed mortality rate

During the study period, 302 112 respiratory deaths were recorded. The mean respiratory mortality weekly rate over the study period was 2.29 per 100 000 population for all ages, 1.69 per 100 000 population for persons aged <65 years, and 13.49 per 100 000 population for persons aged ≥65 years. A marked downward trend in mortality rate can be seen in the all age and <65 years age groups 

Kaalvoet Observations:

1: Influenza Medical Research normally takes place over a 5 year period, therefore, no medical research on Coronavirus, presently is scientific, and therefore, in the old dogs opinion, any medication that is prescribed for me today, any test that is forced on me today, places the medical doctor, the medical official, at risk of being criminally charged, and held responsible for any damages.

2: During the five year period, 2009 to 2013, 302 112 respiratory deaths were recorded in South Africa, on average, 60 0425 per year, and we can accept that the same ration of deaths to population will take place during 2020, resulting in the 2020 respiratory deaths of 69 993

2.1: The 69 993 respiratory deaths per year, will give South Africa a base line Coronavirus death level, depending on the season, and based on the maximum study level of 3.39 per 100 000 population for all ages, resulting in the maximum 2020 respiratory deaths of 103 613

3: This research was conducted on the impact of Influenza in South Africa, the WHO and the rest of the world, has embarked on a mission to kill the Coronavirus, remove it from the world.

3.1  If the Minister of Health continues to use the ‘new born’ political science, to attribute the final cause of death to the Coronavirus, in contrast with the above research, when they still used the underlying illness as the Cause of Death,  I submit that it will take 69 993 lives in South Africa during 2020,

These deaths are usually recorded with an underlying cause of death other than influenza. 

3.2: The success of Lockdown can only be measured, on the recorded numbers of ‘coronavirus deaths’, if we can keep the rate to min test rate per of 0,75  per 100 000, during the study period,  deaths of 22 934  we would have achieved, the achievement to be balanced with the economic deterioration of the survivors.

3.3: The new political research, has as yet, not been able to establish whether the Coronavirus has wiped out Influenza in Europe and the USA, and whether influenza will one day replace Coronavirus.

4:  Due to the South African population who have compromised immune systems through HIV & Tuberculosis, the predicted deaths for 2020, are 65> 37 566,  and <65, 32 356.

In the Kaalvoet opinion, The political scientists, are suffering from Alzheimers’s disease, they live in a world among the dogs who have been taught new tricks, if they wish to object to this opinion, and have the ability to so, I would appreciate their discussion on this research document.

Cedric de la Harpe

 

 

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I celebrate Doctor David King, South African born Chemist.

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For two months I have watched BBC CNN and SkyNews , daily between 16:00 and 18:00, during the past week, I focus on a SkyNews journalist interviewing Dr. David King, about his opinion on whether the UK Government SAGE group of Consultants are independent of Political interference.

Dr David King St John's / Wits
Dr David King St John’s / Wits

Readers of my publications, will have heard me ask the South African Government for details of who their medical scientists are that advise them, because as a 73 year-old, they have changed the ’cause of death’ scientific  status, completely since the emergence of Coronavirus.

I love a Radio of TV interview, where a journalist anticipates that the person being interviewed, will be supportive of him earning his daily bread, and then finds that the interviewee  is about to ‘break all the media rules’ and go against the propaganda material being distributed.

The journalist does his best to get Dr King to give his support to the media concept that SAGE are independent, and that the SAGE advice given to the UK Government is based on sound scientific principles.

Dr King needs to detour t get to what he wishes to say, and asks to the journalist if he remembers the late 1990s ‘pork’ debacle, the journalist claimed to remember the event, and allowed Dr King to proceed.

“The consultants recommendation, off no scientific basis, influenced by business and the politicians, caused great damage to the UK pork industry, it took years to repair the damage, and today, we have come the ‘full circle’, to where politics tells the scientist what the present scientific model is that they should follow”

(my interpretation of what Dr King  was able to say)

For my South African brothers and sisters, Dr David King was born in South Africa in 1939, and educated at St John’s College, Johannesburg and the University of the Witwatersrand (BSc, PhD).

He was the Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government under both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, and Head of the Government Office for Science from October 2000 to 31 December 2007. 

Science as I know it, science before 2020ac.

Cedric de la Harpe

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Gauteng Coronavirus Management calls for Gauteng to take control.

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The Barefoot ‘scientist’ is very critical of how the World is handling the Coronavirus and his finding are detailed in “Coronavirus Death Mystery” for those who have not read it yet.

My graph published on April 18, clearly showed that Gauteng positive cases were spiking in tandem with the National trend;

Gauteng Graph April 17
Gauteng Graph April 17

What Gauteng Coronavirus management has achieved since, is exceptional, follow the trend from the dotted circle, the Gauteng Seven Day Average trend, returned to the April 15 level, but more importantly, the seven day average trend, meets the actual daily infections yesterday, April 28.

Gauteng trend improves
Gauteng trend improves

One of the most important factors that requires the National Government to allow the Gauteng Province and the 15 million citizens of Gauteng to control their future, is that other provinces that are not performing, and in particular the Western Cape,  should not be allowed to negatively impact on the Gauteng Economy and the Gauteng population.

We have a look at the comparative graph;

Gauteng / National Graph
Gauteng / National Graph

On April 17, Gauteng follows the National spike,, and then, by the 19th April, the Gauteng curve flattens,  and the level of flattening is clearly seen as the Gauteng trend is constant, and the actual accumulated infections trend, ‘dark black’, moves from the 28,8% ratio line, as compared to the national trend.

Please  Please

 

Cedric de la Harpe 

   

 

 

  

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Barefoot Scientist solves the Coronavirus ‘Death Mystery’ model;

Kaalvoet Coronavirus deaths curve predictions
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I am Kaalvoet de la Harpe, on April 19, 2020, I had worked through every statistic and daily count of positive infections of the Coronavirus throughout the world.

My interim research results, indicate that South Africa, through following the Western European model, are following the wrong model, my focus moves away from the number of tests and positive cases, and I start to study the ‘death trends’.

The Hidden Coronavirus Death Mystery,

Lessons from applying a ‘Voice of Reason’,

to why the

South Africa’s Coronavirus Management Model is flawed

Kaalvoet:  Working Paper No:  23432

First Draft;   April 19 to April 27, 2020

What has happened to the world?

Continue reading “Barefoot Scientist solves the Coronavirus ‘Death Mystery’ model;”

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Life versus material goods?  (Part 1) 

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Kaalvoet
Kaalvoet

Today I move into a new category, “Life versus material goods”, our State President decrees that if I do not lockdown, “LIFE” we will ‘lose tens of thousands of lives’ I am then forced into lockdown, my business ceases, thousands of others are in the same boat, and millions of informal traders, and unemployed are removed from finding  loaf of bread, we have our “MATERIAL GOODS” forcibly removed from us, to save the tens of thousands of lives.

Our State President has no scientific or International Moral basis, to promote the concept that I, and millions of others, be imprisoned, should sacrifice our material goods, that will take some of us, generations to replace, and others, mainly black, will never recover.

The medical / scientists that have guided South Africa through the Coronavirus debacle, Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, Emil Verner, use research material of Robert J. Barro José F. Ursúa Joanna Weng under the following reference;

THE CORONAVIRUS AND THE GREAT INFLUENZA PANDEMIC: LESSONS FROM THE “SPANISH FLU” FOR THE CORONAVIRUS’S POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON MORTALITY AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

the our very esteem researches, make the following findings;

“Pandemics Depress the Economy, 

Public Health Interventions Do Not.”

Three Wisemen
Three Wisemen

I have no personal challenge to South Africa’s researchers, Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, Emil Verner, I have  challenge to the South African President, for using research material that was still in draft form, one of the President’s women/men, cut and paste the research references onto page 2, of the Proposal for phased economic recovery.pdf.pdf, however, I consider the fact that the President’s women/men, do not reveal that this research document being used, is sill in draft from on April 10, 2020.  I consider this to be done with intent, and in contravention of all my Constitutional Rights, and a Crime Against Humanity.

Three Wisemen before Cut and Paste
Three Wisemen before Cut and Paste

My ‘voice of reason’ always sees ‘cause of action’ with the question, was it done with intent, or just gross negligence?

In the event that the draft research used, had something that the President’s women/men, could have accepted, that I failed to see, I study the document, and only under the Conclusion

At this point, the probability that COVID-19 reaches anything close to the Great Influenza Pandemic seems remote, given advances in public-health care and measures that are being taken to mitigate propagation. In any event, the large potential losses in lives and economic activity justify substantial expenditure of resources to attempt to limit the damage. In effect, countries have been pursuing a policy of lowering real GDP—particularly as it relates to travel and commerce—as a way of curbing the spread of the disease. There is clearly a difficult tradeoff here concerning lives versus material goods, with very little discussion about how this tradeoff should be assessed and acted upon. 

Kaalvoet Averment:

The State President, according to the Risk Analysis and their March 2020 reference, tells us the there has been  very little discussion about how this tradeoff should be assessed and acted upon, therefore, unless he can show scientific research, ‘I am a Victim’ of his failure.

Cedric de la Harpe

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Protection of the human life?

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All you supporters of the total lockdown, and in particular, you who qualify  as level 1, 2, 3, or 4, if you looked after your grand-parents and protected them from the virus, the unemployed and informal sector, would be allowed to live freely.

The Spanish Flu, had developed a perception that the blacks carried the virus, the Coronavirus is killing blacks at a higher ratio to whites in the USA and UK, and in the back of the elites minds, is that these higher death ratios, is because a virus is attracted to the black, therefore, we need to protect our suburbs, and the Global Market, till the virus is driven into the sea?

I am elderly, 73 in a few days, a healthy immune system, into my third day of a Hunger Strike, I have really disturbed my wife and family, I am in the process of compromising my immune system.

The conflict at home, is what I would expect from every child, every family, to protect their grand-parents, if every grand-parent who still has children, the children have the responsibility to protect their grand-parents from any virus, from any threat, in particular, if they have a compromised immune system.

The State, has the responsibility to protect those elders who do not have children to protect them.

The Global Market has the right to shut down the world economy, while they restructure the rules of their game, where the small employer, where the informal economy, is not allowed to play your game, no Government should be allowed to sin-bin us, till you have completed the restructuring.

Every individual has the Human Right to live freely, to earn income, to move freely, to drink beer, and to smoke cigarettes, and the protection of the Global Market may never remove this right.

Cedric de la Harpe

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How many deaths? Life versus livelihood, Scientists have not started.

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There is clearly a difficult tradeoff here concerning lives versus material goods, with very little discussion about how this tradeoff should be assessed and acted upon. 

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES

THE CORONAVIRUS AND THE GREAT INFLUENZA PANDEMIC: LESSONS FROM THE “SPANISH FLU” FOR THE CORONAVIRUS’S POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON MORTALITY AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Robert J. Barro José F. Ursúa Joanna Weng

Working Paper 26866 http://www.nber.org/papers/w26866

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

1050 Massachusetts Avenue

Cambridge, MA 02138

March 2020

Implications for the Coronavirus Pandemic 

The Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1920 represents a plausible worst-case scenario for disease outbreaks with global reach like COVID-19. Our findings show that, keeping everything else constant, the flu death rate of 2.0 percent out of the total population in 1918-1920 would translate into 150 million deaths worldwide when applied to the world’s population of around 7.5 billion in 2020. Further, this death rate corresponds in our regression analysis to declines in the typical country by 6 percent for GDP and 8 percent for private consumption. These economic declines are comparable to those last seen during the global Great Recession of 2008-2009. Thus, the possibility exists not only for unprecedented numbers of deaths but also for a major global economic contraction. The results also show that the 1918-20 pandemic was accompanied by substantial short-term declines in real returns on stocks and short-term government bonds, driven by declines in economic activity and also higher inflation. 

At this point, the probability that COVID-19 reaches anything close to the Great Influenza Pandemic seems remote, given advances in public-health care and measures that are being taken to mitigate propagation. In any event, the large potential losses in lives and economic activity justify substantial expenditure of resources to attempt to limit the damage. In effect, countries have been pursuing a policy of lowering real GDP—particularly as it relates to travel and commerce—as a way of curbing the spread of the disease. There is clearly a difficult tradeoff here concerning lives versus material goods, with very little discussion about how this tradeoff should be assessed and acted upon. 

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APPLICATION FOR SOUTH AFRICAN PARLIAMENT TO RESCIND THE CORONAVIRUS LEGISLATION:

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1:  I, Cedric Raymond de la Harpe, ID 470515 5127 087, hereby make the following statement, in support of my application for the South African Parliament to rescind the Coronavirus Legislation.

2: When making the announcement on Lockdown, the State President basis the decision for the Lockdown, on advice from the Scientists and Medical experts, never providing any details that were provided to our Parliament.

3: On April 22, 2020, I received a copy of a Risk-adjusted strategy for economic activity, an unsigned document under the South African Coat of Arms,  as per the screenshot below;

Risk-adjusted strategy for economic activity

The balance between “lives” and “livelihoods”

Evidence from the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918 shows that the long-run economic consequences for cities experiencing a rapid infection rate and high cumulative infections were significantly worse than those for cities enduring temporary restrictions on economic activity.

“On the one hand, NPIs constrain social interactions while they are in place, and thus necessarily depress any type of economic activity that relies on such interactions. On the other hand, because the pandemic itself has severe economic consequences, by reducing the severity of the pandemic, NPIs can mitigate the most severe economic disruptions. While an interruption of economic activity may be inevitable, this interruption can be shorter-lived and less extensive with NPIs in place that solve coordination problems.” (p. 17)

4: This document, gives the impression that these three are the scientists that are direction operations in the Command Centre, and that their research is scientific, and the direction that should be followed.

4.1:The South African Government has used a copy and paste off a document written by the gentlemen, and still in draft form:

Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health

Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner*

[PRELIMINARY – COMMENTS WELCOME]

This draft: April 10, 2020; First draft: March 26, 2020

4.2: I submit that the South African Government has no other scientific research to sustain they continued manipulation of the economy, at the expense of the middle-class, the labourers, the informal traders, the poverty groups, and should they have such, they should identify such.

5: The balance between “lives” and “livelihoods”

5.1: The balance between lives and livelihoods is foreign concept, to South Africa, just two months ago, saving the Rhino, was more important than saving a life.

5.2: The average Influenza death toll in South Africa is 6000 to 11000, and my averment is that the Chinese, The Italian, the USA models that we have followed, have not honestly reported on any seasonal influenza deaths, while they record every Coronavirus infection.

5.3: I submit that the State should show scientific evidence that the principle of sacrificing the economy, in order to save lives, has accepted scientific findings, that show that Italy and the USA, still have the same levels of seasonal influenza deaths, during the Coronavirus season, and therefore, the potential of 11000 seasonal Influenza deaths, will remain, and that they ‘tens of thousands of deaths’ predicted for Coronavirus, will take place.

5.4: I submit that such findings are presently not in place.

6: I submit that this first paragraph needs to be tested in Court;

Evidence from the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918 shows that the long-run economic consequences for cities experiencing a rapid infection rate and high cumulative infections were significantly worse than those for cities enduring temporary restrictions on economic activity.

6.1: The evidence in South Africa, does show that the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918, showed economic consequences,  for the cities experiencing a rapid infection rate; however;

6.2: Unlike the Coronavirus that attacks the elderly and those with compromised immune systems, the Spanish Flu, mainly killed the labour force, those aged from 15 to 45.

6.3: In South Africa, the labour force died, industry continued operating, where the lives important, and would it be the investors livelihoods that were important.

6.4: One of the findings, was that the labour would have been safer than at work, than at home.

7: 300 000 black people died in South Africa, impacting on their sustainable farming activities, making the black person ‘dependent’ for the first time on the white.

7.1: I quote from Annexure 1, extracted from  a UCT thesis,

BlackOctoberTHE IMPACT

OF THE SPANISH INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC

OF 1918 ON SOUTH AFRICA

by

Howard Phillips, BA Honours (UCT), MA (London)

Yet it was not primarily these assurances which slowly increased the supply of labour during 1919. Far more important were the waning of the ‘flu in the recruiting areas and the pressing shortage of food in areas such as the Transkei and Ciskei. In (part, this stemmed from poor harvests as a result of a severe drought and late planting caused by the epidemic. SO As early as January 1919 a well-informed authority on the Rand was forecasting that,

‘owing to the poor crops in some of the Native Territories and losses suffered through the Epidemic, a considerable increase in the supply of labour~ may be anticipated in the near future.’

7.2: Contrary to the Risk-adjusted strategy for economic activity, the South African strategy, is making the blacks more dependent on the whites, than the Apartheid System ever did.

8: Human Rights; I submit that every human has a right to move freely, to b allowed the opportunity to feed his/her family, and the State has the obligation to provide medical support, to the best of their ability, without taking human rights away from the majority of the population, to protect a scientifically undefined number of people, most of whom have already past their life expectancy.

9: The charity offered to the majority of our population, is an insult to human dignity, the loss of human dignity, is directly related to the gender violence, disobedience, and the burgeoning crime, that presently requires Military Control, supported by the Police and Security.

10:   I now introduce the averments that the State, the declared Coronavirus  has no scientific basis to, and submit that the State will ned to show the Court such.

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